Journal archive
IT management |
|
Performance management |
|
|
The paper focuses on analyzing development programs for complex organizational and technical
systems. Such programs comprise projects and program events linked with each other by relations of
precedence. The programs exert influence on maturity of managed objects and have certain financial
consequences. Distinctive features of such programs include impossibility of assessment of their results
in financial terms, as well as availability of stochastic characteristics. Stochastic nature of key parameters
of development programs (projects durations, time lags between projects and events, power of
impact on maturity and financial metrics) makes it possible to apply discrete-event modeling. Special
attention is paid on complicated projects of three types: with uncertain outcome, with possibility of reimplementation
and with few variants of implementation. As a modeling tool, timed stochastic Petri
nets with certain attributes of places, transitions and arcs are applied. Different time lags are described
by the means of holding durations assigned to the arcs. For complicated projects, special routing policies
allowing stochastic selection of firing transitions are used. The modeling approach allows analyzing
consequences of potential development programs, including both their effects and related expenditures.
In turn, the modeling results help to justify decisions regarding comparison of alternative
development programs and selection of one of them for implementation.
|
|---|---|
|
|
The demand for MES-systems is significantly increasing nowadays in the Russian and world markets.
MES information systems provide IT services to support the operational management of production
processes, which form the basis of the finished product cost. MES implementation projects are particularly
complex, as they are often introduced into the existing enterprise architecture and are designed
to be an effective link between the technological preparation and production on the one hand and ERP
systems on the other. This paper discusses the key challenges of MES implementation projects, analyses
particular elements of PRINCE2 standard and their adaptability for IT projets, and describes the
way of adaptation of PRINCE2 key elements to manage implementation of MES by 1C — one of the
most famous information system developers in Russia. The adaptation proposed can form the basis of
a unified methodology of 1C MES-solutions implementation approach, which currently does not exist.
|
Software engineering |
|
Models and althorithms |
|
|
|
The article considers the problem of data protection from unauthorized access by means of user identification
by keyboard handwriting. The estimation of informativeness of different features that characterize
the keyboard handwriting of subjects, including the dynamics of change in pressure when you
press the keys and keyboard settings vibration. The category of new features, based on using of wavelet
transform Daubechies D6 to function of the pressure fingers on the keys and keyboard functions of
vibration while typing, was proposed. The laws of distribution of basic and additional features of keyboard
handwriting were determined. To form the base of biometric samples a keyboard was designed
with the use of special sensors. The estimation of the correlation dependence of features was made. It is
determined that the correlation between basic features (temporal characteristics of keystrokes) and additional
features (pressure on the keys and the keyboard vibration) in more than 80% of cases is weak.
Thus, in the proposed new attributes contain information about the subject. An assessment of the probability
of identification errors based on the Bayesian strategy using the various features of the spaces was
made. It is found that additional features can reduce the average number of errors is more than 7 times.
|
|
In this paper, the authors, on the basis of a software package ScicosLab, carried out simulation of
apparatus for protection against imitation of controlled objects with high structural security of carrier
signals, aimed at the substantiation of its practical use for secure information exchange between
the sensors and the control unit in the radio fire alarm systems. In the result of a simulation when
changes in the parameters of a chaotic signal on the basis of quality indicators in the form of graphs
found that the simulated apparatus for protection against imitation of controlled objects with high
structural security of carrier signals in general copes with the task of encryption (the output signal
has a noise-like appearance) and recovery of the information signal (source information signal and
the recovered information signal have almost identical appearance). The distinctive feature of this
apparatus for protection against imitation of controlled objects with high structural security of carrier
signals is the possibility of using different chaotic signals that are recorded in rewritable drives
chaotic sequences. This fact allows to significantly increase the security of the radio link from unauthorized
access by third parties.
|
|
|
The aim is to develop software for the automation of the work of the magneto-optical device. The paper
describes the developed automated devices for the study of magneto-optical materials. Materials for
this study thin film with a magnetic anisotropy in which the two-dimensional ordered domain structures
can be formed. These materials are transparent in the infrared and visible spectral range and exhibit a
magneto-optical Faraday effect. Domain structures are of interest for the creation of controlled diffraction
gratings, baffles, switches, fiber-optic communication lines, etc. The device can change the external
influence on the sample, analyze and recognize objects (digital images), highlight the region with
the labyrinthine domain structure. External influences may be magnetic and thermal fields. Formation
of ordered two-dimensional domain structures in the material depends on the parameters of the external
field: the pulse duration, intensity, direction, offset voltage, the direction of DC offset, etc.. The device
allows you to get the equilibrium labyrinthine domain structure and register settings of external
fields. At present, the developed software is used in conjunction with a magneto-optical device for materials
research at the Department of Radio Engineering, National Research Mordovia State University.
|
Software development technologies |
|
|
The article considers the architecture of validation and data-transformation module used in BML
interpreter. BML is declarative modeling domain-specific language created by authors for web-developing.
The article discusses about theoretical basis and practical implementation of Block element.
Definition of the architecture class inheritance and search for a universal solution are considered for
writing the corresponding module using some design patterns one of them is «abstract factory». The
pattern allows making of universal architecture of Block class. There is a problem related with Block
nature. The block can be declared in BML language with different data types, so that data must be
validated and transformed in different ways. In case of integer data type we need to check that it has
only digits, but string type has no limits with allowed characters. The string consisted digits in integer
type should be converted to number by internal algorithms. So, we need to develop architecture with
universal input with different ways to process data depended on their type. The solution of using the
«abstract factory» pattern is the best way to that task. Authors developed abstract class named «Block»
with virtual methods and different concrete classes for each block of different data type. Each concrete
class has a standard set of methods inherited of abstract class.
|
Decision support systems |
|
|
Problem statement: solutions analytical justification by using a decision support system (DSS) significantly
increases the quality of decisions. The existing DSS generally employs methods analytic hierarchy
process and analytical networks. It does not always lead to the desired results as each method is
based on certain assumptions and is not universal. The creation of the DSS, including ELECTRE collection
methods, will allow to obtain additional information about the relative importance of different
variants of the solution for the task. Methodological basis for the creation the DSS «ELECTRE»: the
family of ELECTRE methods, which include ELECTRE I, ELECTRE Iv, ELECTRE IS, ELECTRE
II, ELECTRE III and others. Their key feature consists in the fact that they do not use the convolution
operation of evaluation of the alternatives specified in different scales on different criteria. Results: developed
software of DSS «ELECTRE», allowing to use any of the methods of this family to select the
preferred alternatives based on multiple criteria and evaluations of their relative importance. Practical
relevance: unlike other developments, the research results allow to analytically justify solutions using
a variety of methods of collection in one software environment.
|
Laboratory |
|
Models and Methods |
|
|
The feature of forecasting in the process of management decision-making is the lack of constant
need to know an actual future value of the indicator. Most often, it is enough to know: will the future
value of the indicator exceed a predetermined value or not? The predetermined value divides the range
of possible future indicator values into two intervals. Since, in this case, we define the range in which
will be the future value of the indicator we call this method «interval forecasting».
The article proposes algorithmic and software of interval forecasting of dynamic indicators based on
an adaptive probabilistic statistical cluster model, where instead of the unknown probabilities are taken
account their point and interval estimates for the selected confidence probability. Authors show that
such a combined approach leads to improve interval forecasting accuracy and, as a result, improves the
quality of decision-making. The consequence of the combined approach is the increase of the number
of cases when the interval forecasting is not carried out. This is due to the fact, that some of point estimates
of probabilities are statistically indistinguishable. The number of these cases depends on statistical
characteristics, volume retrospective values of dynamic indicators and parameter values of the cluster
model. All the results in the article were obtained with the use of open-source programming language
«R», based on which was created a special software package for the end user. Improving the accuracy
of the interval forecasting is aimed at improving the efficiency of management decision-making, so the
software package can be used as a tool for the preparation of information for decision support system.
|
Teacher’s portfolio |
|
Mathematical models in economy |
|
|
In the planning of investment activity of the individual or company has to deal with the risks. Risk
means the possibility of investing planned shortfall of income, because of the influence on the parameters
involved in the formation of extraordinary income, accidental or undetermined factors. The uncertainty
of these factors comes from the fact that many of them relate to the future and change randomly.
An investor can not influence them, and should assess the investment return based on forecasted or expected
future values of these parameters. In modeling the firm should take into account the impact on
the operations or processes of random variables. In this case, the most efficient to use a kind of simulation
— statistical modeling (or Monte Carlo method).It is suitable for practical use, as the system under
study is replaced by simulation, with which and experimental studies are made. During the implementation
of a simulation model of the decisive role played by the use of computers. You must first create
a table calculation indices containing about revenue data, profits, taxes, coefficient of efficiency, payback
period of the investment project. Next, you need to determine the predicted performance. In our
example in the future price of the product may be subject to adjustment. In addition, if the volume of
sales can be predicted as random variables that are independent of our strategy, their random change
should be included in the simulation model. With the help of instrumental capabilities of Excel calculated
data corresponding model. According to the results of statistical modeling can determine the probability
assessment quality criteria characterizing features of the functioning and effectiveness of the
business. You can draw conclusions and make decisions about investing based on descriptive statistics.
|
Point of view |
|
Methodology of science |
|
|
|
Article is focused to disclose not feasibility of the systematic highly effective not slowed down advance
to creation of the artificial intelligence (AI) if researches are conducted by highly specialized
researchers in the AI scientific direction (SD_AI) and in NN «representation of knowledge in computer
systems» (SD_RKinCS), not obliged and not persons interested to burden itself with problems
of tandem NN. For НН_ИИ the escalating level of intensity of researches and scale of achievements
of theoretical character is characteristic. At the same time the regularity of almost significant results
of researches leaves to wish bigger. In article of the first on the importance and the removed cause of
current situation mutual isolation of a concrete set of researches in НН_ИИ and in SD_RKinCS is
called. Also historical conditionality of this dissociation of two massifs of researches is noted. Then
the possible reasons and conditions of admissibility of division of a set of researches on two or bigger
quantity of the isolated NN are noted. Thereby inadmissibility of division of a concrete set of researches
into two NN is shown: НН_ИИ and SD_RKinCS. Attenuation of initiatives of advance of
researches on the next step as is described from developers of covers of the systems based on knowledge
(SBK) and from developers of concrete SBK. And also the concrete technology of step-by-step,
serial advance of researches is given to two NN. Thereby need and a possibility of association of a set
of researches, now mistakenly isolated is shown. All statements and conclusions in article are executed
in relation to researches on natural-science positions, that is in relation to modeling of natural intelligence
and to modeling of gnoseological model.
|
IT in chemical technology |
|
Automated control systems |
|
|
|
The justification of technological schemes design automation significance for the chemical industry
application area is provided. The solution by developing of the specific application area oriented tools
is suggested. Proposed combination of custom formal system and domain specific languages approach
provides the means to technological scheme model manipulations. These manipulations includes as
schemes development as their validation according to subject matter expert restrictions and recommendations.
To support it, formal system should include both experimental and industrial production
technological schemes description languages and these languages constructions mutual mapping. The
set of requirements to such formal system and its elements is defined. In addition we demonstrate the
promising of the proposed approach with joint development of the formal system main components.
The resulted formal system gives us the ability to develop as experimental production technological
schemes as derived industrial ones with real practical capacities and constraints accounting.
|
|
|
The paper presents the models and methods for creation and application of hybrid intelligent systems,
providing solvingthe unformalized multidisciplinary problems in the field of the reliability and
safety of chemical and petrochemical manufactures in terms of processing large volumes of information.
The self-organizing algorithm based on parameters of the order and cybernetic control circuits
is proposed. The algorithm allows forming the structure and functions of the decision-making system
when obtaining the information that is not presented in the models.
An aggregate simulation model for a description of the equipments investigated is presented. The
feature of the model is the use of analytical models to determine continuous changes of the technical
conditions, and methods of artificial intelligence for discrete changes. The self-organizing algorithm
and simulation gives opportunity to solve inter-and multidisciplinary problems on the basis of aggregation
of goals and objectives of specialists of different scientific fields, and an adequate exchange of
information among them on the decisions made and the results achieved in various stages of investigation.
Integration of knowledge and increased the effectiveness of decision making in the field of
the failure risk reduction are the main result of the joint application of the self-organizing algorithm
and simulation.
|
|
|
In the first stage of determining the optimal mode is necessary to conduct a theoretical optimization
process, i.e. to find the best values of the control parameters, without asking their feasibility. The paper
shows the formulation of optimization criterion in terms of economic efficiency. Theoretical optimization
of the catalytic process can be based on a kinetic model of the chemical reaction. The concept
of information-analytical system of theoretical computational optimization of catalytic processes determined
by the methodology IDEF0. Thus, the input parameters are: reaction mechanism, the experimental
data and some physical and chemical limitations which characterize the specificity of the process —
these options are needed to build a kinetic model of the reaction, as well as the optimization criterion required
for optimization problem formulation. The result (output) of solving the problem is an improved
process, the formulation of optimal process conditions. Management is the methods used in solving the
problem. And as a mechanism performs data-processing system is theoretical, analytical optimization of
catalytic processes. As the object of optimizing is catalytic process of interaction alcohols with dimethyl
carbonate, which refers to the reactions of the «green» chemistry. A mathematical model of chemical kinetics
is a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with initial data, ie, the Cauchy problem.
For this reaction was build kinetic model, determined the rate constants and activation energies. As the
economic optimization criterion chosen process profitability. For the calculations took the relative values
of the cost of reagents and energy of the total flow. Changing of profitability used in the case when
the costs considered of reagents and energy. It was determined that the profitability out to the maximum,
and decreases with time, due to the cost of maintaining the desired temperature. With increasing temperature,
the maximum profitability comes first. Moreover, increasing the catalyst concentration to 0.05
mol/l does not increase the profitability. Then, the optimal value of the catalyst is 0.03 mol/l.
|
