Authors
Isaev D.
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Degree
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PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, National Research University Higher School of Economics |
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E-mail
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disaev@hse.ru |
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Location
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Moscow |
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Articles
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Modeling of development programs with stochastic parameters and uncertain economic benefits
The paper focuses on analyzing development programs for complex organizational and technical
systems. Such programs comprise projects and program events linked with each other by relations of
precedence. The programs exert influence on maturity of managed objects and have certain financial
consequences. Distinctive features of such programs include impossibility of assessment of their results
in financial terms, as well as availability of stochastic characteristics. Stochastic nature of key parameters
of development programs (projects durations, time lags between projects and events, power of
impact on maturity and financial metrics) makes it possible to apply discrete-event modeling. Special
attention is paid on complicated projects of three types: with uncertain outcome, with possibility of reimplementation
and with few variants of implementation. As a modeling tool, timed stochastic Petri
nets with certain attributes of places, transitions and arcs are applied. Different time lags are described
by the means of holding durations assigned to the arcs. For complicated projects, special routing policies
allowing stochastic selection of firing transitions are used. The modeling approach allows analyzing
consequences of potential development programs, including both their effects and related expenditures.
In turn, the modeling results help to justify decisions regarding comparison of alternative
development programs and selection of one of them for implementation.
Read more...
Evaluating performance management systems development programs relying on the maturity modelAt present, performance management systems are extremely important for enterprises and organizations of diff industries, as a tool for fi the gap between strategic planning and operational activities. Because of indirect and uncertain nature of economic benefi obtained from such systems, traditional investment appraisal methods are inapplicable for evaluating their development programs. Therefore, implementation and adoption of performance management systems require special measures characterizing both fi expenditures related with development programs and non-financial results. For this purpose, a system of measures of performance management systems development is advanced in this article. All the measures are subdivided into three groups - effectiveness (results obtained), economy (financing and resources used) and efficiency (relations between the results and resources). The measures characterizing development results are based on the performance management maturity model that expresses the systems’ maturity according to a set of pre-defi qualitative threshold levels. Various types of values of the measures are applicable on diff stages of the management process. Particularly, targeted values are used as requirements to development programs on the stage of forming potential alternatives and their assessment. Modeled values are related with discrete-event simulation of potential programs, for their comparison and selecting one of them for implementation. Planned values are applied when launching the development program selected. Forecasted values are useful on different stages of the program’s implementation. Finally, actual values are used for summarizing consequences of the program that is partially or fully completed. The significance of the proposed measurement methodology is explained by its role in the general process of performance management systems development. Read more... |
