Authors
Stepanenko N.
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Degree
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PhD in Sociology, Associate Professor, University Synergy |
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E-mail
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natanata2009@mail.ru |
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Location
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Moscow |
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Articles
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Microsoft Excel application possibilities in modeling risks of investment projects
In the planning of investment activity of the individual or company has to deal with the risks. Risk
means the possibility of investing planned shortfall of income, because of the influence on the parameters
involved in the formation of extraordinary income, accidental or undetermined factors. The uncertainty
of these factors comes from the fact that many of them relate to the future and change randomly.
An investor can not influence them, and should assess the investment return based on forecasted or expected
future values of these parameters. In modeling the firm should take into account the impact on
the operations or processes of random variables. In this case, the most efficient to use a kind of simulation
— statistical modeling (or Monte Carlo method).It is suitable for practical use, as the system under
study is replaced by simulation, with which and experimental studies are made. During the implementation
of a simulation model of the decisive role played by the use of computers. You must first create
a table calculation indices containing about revenue data, profits, taxes, coefficient of efficiency, payback
period of the investment project. Next, you need to determine the predicted performance. In our
example in the future price of the product may be subject to adjustment. In addition, if the volume of
sales can be predicted as random variables that are independent of our strategy, their random change
should be included in the simulation model. With the help of instrumental capabilities of Excel calculated
data corresponding model. According to the results of statistical modeling can determine the probability
assessment quality criteria characterizing features of the functioning and effectiveness of the
business. You can draw conclusions and make decisions about investing based on descriptive statistics.
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Application of analysis of hierarchies in the choice of a method of automation of a companyAutomating a company’s business processes is an important part of optimizing its operations.
The automation process is a project activity based on the principles of achieving the goal, spending
resources and meeting deadlines. The choice of automation method depends on many criteria (preferences,
desires, technical and cost components) that must be considered in the planning of the project.
The method of analyzing hierarchies will make it possible to organize in the best way the decisionmaking
process regarding the choice of an automation method.
The hierarchy analysis method, developed by the American mathematician Thomas Saaty about
30 years ago, is still widely used in practice for making decisions in all subject areas. In matters of choosing
how to automate business processes of a company, this method is the best fit, because It makes it possible
in the best way to take into account in the project all the requirements for the future system, to ensure
the most acceptable functionality, to organize the most effective implementation and further support.
The effectiveness of its use in the selection of automation systems is demonstrated by the example of the
construction company PSK «Dom-skazka» engaged in automatization of business processes. To solve our
problem, six criteria were chosen. As a result of the analysis, a response was received, allowing to decide
on the choice of how to automate the production process. In the article, the authors consider an example
of applying the hierarchy analysis method in solving the problem of choosing an automation method.
The task has been set, alternatives have been chosen, selection criteria have been described, mathematical
calculations have been carried out and the results have been obtained, on the basis of which a reasonable
choice of the best alternative (automation method) has been made for the company in question.
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