articles
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№ 1(67)
27 february 2017 year
Rubric: Mathematical models in economy Authors: Stepanenko N., Haritonov S. |
In the planning of investment activity of the individual or company has to deal with the risks. Risk
means the possibility of investing planned shortfall of income, because of the influence on the parameters
involved in the formation of extraordinary income, accidental or undetermined factors. The uncertainty
of these factors comes from the fact that many of them relate to the future and change randomly.
An investor can not influence them, and should assess the investment return based on forecasted or expected
future values of these parameters. In modeling the firm should take into account the impact on
the operations or processes of random variables. In this case, the most efficient to use a kind of simulation
— statistical modeling (or Monte Carlo method).It is suitable for practical use, as the system under
study is replaced by simulation, with which and experimental studies are made. During the implementation
of a simulation model of the decisive role played by the use of computers. You must first create
a table calculation indices containing about revenue data, profits, taxes, coefficient of efficiency, payback
period of the investment project. Next, you need to determine the predicted performance. In our
example in the future price of the product may be subject to adjustment. In addition, if the volume of
sales can be predicted as random variables that are independent of our strategy, their random change
should be included in the simulation model. With the help of instrumental capabilities of Excel calculated
data corresponding model. According to the results of statistical modeling can determine the probability
assessment quality criteria characterizing features of the functioning and effectiveness of the
business. You can draw conclusions and make decisions about investing based on descriptive statistics.
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The purpose of this paper is to present the architecture of the CRM system that uses Web Mining
techniques and the principles of adaptive management. Adaptive model of customer relationship management
in the Web CRM system based on Web Mining technologies is represented in the following
form. The core of the CRM system is an adaptive website, based on dynamic analysis of the web resources
information usage in order to modify the web site ontology and its personalization to improve
user interaction. The system uses online methods to capture useful information from user log file data
and browsing pages to analyze customers’ behavior, their preferences regarding different groups of
goods and services of the company. The obtained data are structured using the cluster analysis, classification,
and association rule mining in order to determine groups of customers and prospects with
similar characteristics and behavior. Based on this analysis valuable consumer segments are determined
according to the current customer value. For each group of customers system forms the most effective
strategy for interaction. To develop adaptive strategies for interacting with customers the proposed
model uses the self-organizing learning algorithms. As a result, when using an adaptive approach in
Web CRM system forms a closed loop feedback, which allows in real time to adjust the strategy of interaction
with customer according to his current preferences and constraints.
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Though for the last years «cloudy» services gained popularity at the enterprise. Providers offers
many various models of cloud computing, for example IaaS, PaaS, SaaS, but often don’t give proof
why cloud services implementation in the company make more effectiveness business. This article
discusses whysome enterprises have different costs, even when other conditions are equal and how
company can use cloud service for rise goodwill value. Discusses there are many methods for determination
of the goodwill value, but none of them has not been adopted in the Russian legislation yet.
Reveals differences in the approaches to assessing the business reputation of the company and determined
the optimal cloud service pricing model, taking into account the company’s needs in intangible
assets. We investigate different models for assessing the effectiveness of cloud services in the company.
Is developing a model for the adoption of decisions on the use of cloud services in the period
of limited resources by capital rationing. The basic points in the method of effective implementation
of cloud services in the company.
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Spacecrafts constellation increasing and using few-point its control technology cause increasing
workload of both control facilities and planning department, which allocates these facilities. It is necessary
to timely predict of the situation of allocation control facilities for spacecrafts to compensate
these factors. The factors influenced on evaluated parameters of the situation of allocation control facilities
for spacecrafts and their influence are analyzed. The main parameters of the situation are discussed.
It is shown that the workload of planning department depends a lot from a number of conflicts
during allocation control facilities for spacecrafts. The model of prediction workload of planning department
was developed and implemented in MatLAB. The description of its unites is given. A series
of model experiments was performed. Some numeric probabilistic characteristics of workload of
planning department were obtained. So, the number of conflicts increasing progressively during increasing
the number of spacecrafts. The largest number of conflicts is observed at the least number
of control facilities. Note that the number of conflicts can vary significantly for the same number of
spacecrafts and control facilities. However, the trend of progressive growth of the number of conflicts
during increasing the number of spacecrafts is still preserved. In general case, the probability density
of the number of conflicts tends to the normal distribution law.
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A technology of base indicators complex forecasting of transportation process of railway transport
based on statistical and expert information using scenario approach have been developed. The cargo
turnover and cargo transportation volume have been selected as base indicators. Complex forecasting
based on four individual values with different weights: а) the value, which has been obtained by the
first-order model; b) the value, which has been obtained by the first-order model; c) the value, which
was obtained by the factor model; e) the point expert estimate of qualified specialists group. Developed
algorithms and software using statistical and expert information of Ulan-Bator Railway in relation to
the loading of goods have been approbated. It shows the good practical accuracy of complex forecasting
based on the scenario approach.
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Allocation of resources difficult and time-consuming process, requiring much labor. Even if the
number of resources in a few hundred or a thousand difficulties arise with manual allocation taking
into account the workload of all the objects, their qualitative agreement distributed objects. One of
the problems of resource allocation is a problem in the application to optimize the educational process
on the qualitative and quantitative indicators characterizing the process. The formalization of discrete
resource allocation process between the objects of a closed system. A mathematical model, formalized
the basic indicators and marked limitation in the system. A mathematical model of the visual
arrangement of elements in the system. The technological aspects of application of data visualization
and especially the perception of the person making the decision in graphical form. Build an information
model of the system, allowing to link the original set of resources to specific system objects, taking
into account the qualitative characteristics. The main actions performed by users: enter (imports)
the initial data load and teachers, data editing, load distribution to teachers, the formation of the cards
in a predetermined pattern described in use case diagrams. Developed system of correspondence between
the qualitative characteristics of the resource and the object. Revealed features and technical
requirements for the developed information system. Static representation of the software is presented
in the form of a class diagram. dynamic model of the system is also designed in UML 2.0 notations.
Implemented software implementation of the designed system. User by dragging and dropping items
on the screen binds the current load to a specific teacher. Is a screen form of automated load-balancing
system. Conclusions about the feasibility of using the system.
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