Key words
scenario approach, multifactorial forecasting, turnover of goods, loading of goods, factor models, expert judgment.
articles
Authors:
Krakovskij Y., Luzgin A. Published in
№ 2(68)
29 april 2017 year
Rubric: Resource management
Rubric: Resource management
Forecasting of base indicators of transportation process based on a scenario approach
A technology of base indicators complex forecasting of transportation process of railway transport
based on statistical and expert information using scenario approach have been developed. The cargo
turnover and cargo transportation volume have been selected as base indicators. Complex forecasting
based on four individual values with different weights: а) the value, which has been obtained by the
first-order model; b) the value, which has been obtained by the first-order model; c) the value, which
was obtained by the factor model; e) the point expert estimate of qualified specialists group. Developed
algorithms and software using statistical and expert information of Ulan-Bator Railway in relation to
the loading of goods have been approbated. It shows the good practical accuracy of complex forecasting
based on the scenario approach.
The author:
Krakovskij Y.
Degree:
Dr of Technique, Professor, Irkutsk State University of Railway Transport
Location:
Irkutsk
