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In the study of dynamic processes is necessary realistic and objective causal analysis of events.
Such analysis is possible due to application of mathematical and computer simulation methods. Existing
methods of modelling, quantification and forecasting typically require large volume of the original
data, which is not always available, especially when the simulated indicator depends on several
variables, and they underestimate the possibility of extremely rare events that violate distribution pattern
of this indicator. The purpose of this paper — development of a new minimax method estimating
of dynamic patterns for rectangular grid of values of independent variables, mathematical study
of a new method of modeling, the establishment of an effective algorithm, demonstration of application.
Are stated and proved the properties of the solution of the problem which is implementation of
tools modeling technique, that allowed develop an algorithm in the form of step by step instructions,
which is easily implemented in any software environment. In the article demonstrated examples of
implementation of the algorithm, in particular, reviewed its application to assess the dynamic trends
for the purpose of data compression and prediction of missing values in the sample. Proposed a minimax
model of multiple regression and its realization for estimation of parameters of autoregressive
depending. Mathematical justification and obtained the properties of the new model allowed to develop
effective, from the viewpoint of availability of the software implementation in real-time, algorithm.
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The analysis of social engineering systems allowed to build fuzzy cognitive model of assessment
of its man-made elements to arrive at an informed judgment about the need for control actions to
bring the State of the social subsystem to the specified level. The set of control actions is implemented
through the use of institutional mechanisms, motivation and information management. You must
ensure that the level of motivation is not greater than the optimum value, and the intensity of institutional
measures was below critical. To calculate the value of concepts at the lower levels of the hierarchy
model can be used as an additive vector measure up, because in this case, the values of some
concepts can be offset by other values. For the top level of appropriate application of convolution,
because the multiplicative if at least one of the concepts of {«level of motivation “; «Psychophysical
capabilities; «Competence»} «variable linguistic factor» is set to «Low», then the integral evaluation
of the level of effectiveness of the man-made element should be taken as equal to «Low». Evaluation
of the concept of “ Level motivation» may correspond to the values of the negative term-many
of the linguistic variable. Assessment of the status of the subject in this case will also take «negative
» values. Content that can be interpreted as the potential destructive impact of man-made element
on the system-«insider threat».
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№ 4(58)
28 august 2015 year
Rubric: Methodology of science Authors: Bolotova L. S., Danchul А., Nikishina A., Novikov A., Surkhaev M. |
This article is devoted to a problem of creation of the program systems (PS) organizing the information
search (IS), and providing high rates of efficiency for the mass user (not the expert in the field of informational
technologies). Researches weren’t limited by the review of achievements in practice of creation
PS_IS, and also in the corresponding scientific and engineering disciplines. The subject of researches
is the process of achievement of mutual understanding in communication between two subjects. Such
researches completely correspond to the character of researches in the scientific direction of artificial
intellect. It points out the essence which allocates from the process of communication between subjects,
and it is explained the concept corresponding to it and it is offered to call «initial identification». Consideration
of process of initial identification allowed to reveal the main contradiction in a problem of creation
PS_IS. In the process of communication (and respectively in IS) the subject operates with all known set
of concepts and uses thus as gained recognition (simple or compound) names of concepts, and the
names formed directly in the course of communication. However in a natural language only 83.000 concepts
are called by simple unique names (in a word). Compound names called incomparably more concepts,
they make only insignificant part of concepts with which the subject operates in communication.
Thus, the dominating part of algorithms of II is connected with application of quickly named concepts.
It is shown that process of an operational name is feasible only with use of the model of knowledge
approached to gnoseological model. And it is also specified that after some time in computer
systems emergence of such models of knowledge is possible.
For the new technology of IS the organization of access of each concrete tag of a concrete concept
to its names in base of names is offered. That makes a basis of the organization of base of simple
and compound names. Also other characteristics of the organization of the dictionary at triune
essence are provided.
Such concept as»construction of sentence» is offered for a broad use in scientific practice interpretation
of which corresponds to interpretation of the concept «sense of the sentence» with explanations,
which allow to draw sense from sequence of alphanumeric symbols.
A great place in this work takes consideration of algorithms of formation and recognition of sentences
(that is II). Many situations of II suspension are revealed and described. It is noted that completeness
of such situations, and also algorithms of permission of the concrete situations and scenarios
of interactive interaction providing finishing II up to the end make the essence of works on
formation of the specification on design of PS realizing new technology of IS.
In conclusion it is pointed out that the declared subject due to its scale can’t be opened in one article
in details (scrupulously) to conform to requirements to the specification on creation of II. It is important that
the complete picture of new technology of IS is given in article and feasibility of such technology is shown.
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№ 5(59)
27 october 2015 year
Rubric: Resource management Authors: Zaramenskikh E., Danik Y., Korovkina N. |
The goal of this article is to investigate an approach to the organization of IT infrastructure management
for a network of multifunctional complexes of roadside service on the basis of IT Service Management
(ITSM) best practices. IT Service Management refers to the implementation and management
of quality information technology services. The network of multifunctional roadside complexes
has a very complex IT infrastructure consisting of a large number of different components. Moreover,
the company is planning to actively use IT outsourcing. Business continuity significantly depends on
the quality of provided IT services, the availability and reliability of IT infrastructure.
Firstly, the problems that the network of multifunctional complexes of roadside service faces due
to the lack of proper IT infrastructure management and maintenance are identified. Then a system
of management processes is developed using ITSM best practices and in compliance with the business
goals and the role of IT in the network of multifunctional complexes of roadside service. A combination
of several methodologies and techniques was used: COBIT 5 framework for information
technology management and governance, The Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL
v. 3) — a set of practices for IT service management, and the first international standard for IT service
management — ISO/IEC 20 000.
The capability of the proposed solution to address the identified problems and to mitigate risk is
justified.
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Now has the opportunity to make informed choices on the implementation of the applied processes
or cloud technology based on its own resources, do not use cloud technologies. There are
several options for cloud solutions and different combinations of partial transfer to the cloud applied
processes, the problem of choosing the optimal solution becomes quite complicated. The applied
system is a set of interrelated components of the information system, which provides a solution specific
application in a particular company. Applied system consists of the following components of the
information system: users; experts; application (a set of applications); User Interface — information
system; shared hardware and software information systems involved in the implementation of an application
or set of applications. It is proposed to link the concept of information risk not only the safety
of information, but also to its quality. Fundamentals of information risk management applied systems,
presents the general model of calculating the costs of information risk management applied systems.
The optimality criterion is the decision about the choice of a technology implementation of the applied
process is the minimum of the cost of managing information risk. The advantage criterion is to
bring the cost of providing information risk management and the amount of the alleged damage to
the company from the negative developments in the enterprise information system.
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Historically automation of various business areas in universities was implemented not as holistic
and integrated information systems. On the contrary these systems were isolated from each other. But
all of them could require data of other systems, often in real-time and furthermore with support of write
operations. In many universities attempts were made in order to eliminate the problem of integration
by creation a single holistic system, but all of these attempts were unsuccessful. Thus, integration is
necessary to combine individual systems into a unified information system of university. For example
the access control system must be integrated with main information system. Besides, this integration
must be in real-time. Access control system also can make many connections (sql-queries) to
database of main information system. In this article the integration of main information system and elearning
platform was considered. MOODLE acts as the e-learning platform, 1C: Enterprise
acts as
the main information system. Administration of users in manual mode is difficult and ineffective when
too many users are in a system (more than 7000 in our case). The e-learning platform uses the main
information system as a provider of user database. Any record in this database contains username,
password, photo, etc. As a result of this integration, transfer of user`s photo between systems in realtime
was achieved in a high load environment.
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