articles

The article discusses the risk management of investment, innovative and import substitution projects. Since the implementation of such projects requires investors and investments, innovative projects can sometimes be considered as a kind of investment projects, and import substitution projects as a kind of innovative ones. However, these projects have significant differences from each other in viewpoint of emerging risks. Moreover, a systemic effect may arise of a sharp increase in the complexity in the total project risk during the implementation of complex system projects. Therefore, the use of simulation with elements of artificial intelligence, including fuzzy logic and artificial life algorithms, is becoming relevant in the management of project risks. As a result, a new method is proposed for identifying the need to create hybrid fuzzy-logical simulation models or the absence of such a need based on identifying synergistic effects when analyzing the risk rubricator in a specific project. The analysis of the investment attractiveness of the Russia’s regions using the evolutionary-simulative methodology on the example of the Smolensk and Tambov regions. A new method is proposed for selecting innovation clusters and promoting innovative projects in the regions on the basis of integrated bacteria swarm-simulation modeling with detection of contours selected territories borders. A new economic and mathematical toolkit for managing the risk of import substitution has been created.