Authors

Synergy and evolution of information systems in holding management

Analysis of the feasibility of innovative projects for creating high technology products: the algorithms and instruments

System analysis of risky project realization using special scales (for example, investment processes)

Simulation modeling and fuzzy logic in real-time decision-making of airport services

Assigning priorities in technological hubs using simulation and fuzzy logic

Complex simulation using genetic algorithms

Bacterial optimization and complex swarm-simulation modeling of innovative projects’ promotion into the regions

Formation of the structure of the intellectual system of analyzing and rubricating unstructured text information in different situations

Developing the economic information system for automated analysis of unstructured text documents

Hybrid cyber-modeling in economics: actor-network theory, simulation, NON-factors and super fuzzy logic

Instrumental decision support in multiprojects management for metal production issue (part 1)

Instrumental decision support in multiprojects management for metal production issue

Using fuzzy decision trees to rubricate unstructured small-sized text documents

Analysis of short unstructured documents using fuzzy significance scales and special procedures for economic information integration

Investments, innovations, import substitution: simulation with elements of artificial intelligence in project risk management

The article discusses the risk management of investment, innovative and import substitution projects. Since the implementation of such projects requires investors and investments, innovative projects can sometimes be considered as a kind of investment projects, and import substitution projects as a kind of innovative ones. However, these projects have significant differences from each other in viewpoint of emerging risks. Moreover, a systemic effect may arise of a sharp increase in the complexity in the total project risk during the implementation of complex system projects. Therefore, the use of simulation with elements of artificial intelligence, including fuzzy logic and artificial life algorithms, is becoming relevant in the management of project risks. As a result, a new method is proposed for identifying the need to create hybrid fuzzy-logical simulation models or the absence of such a need based on identifying synergistic effects when analyzing the risk rubricator in a specific project. The analysis of the investment attractiveness of the Russia’s regions using the evolutionary-simulative methodology on the example of the Smolensk and Tambov regions. A new method is proposed for selecting innovation clusters and promoting innovative projects in the regions on the basis of integrated bacteria swarm-simulation modeling with detection of contours selected territories borders. A new economic and mathematical toolkit for managing the risk of import substitution has been created. Read more...

Rubrication of text documents based on fuzzy difference relations

One of the key areas of informatization of public authorities is to develop and implement the systems of automated processing the electronic appeals (applications, complaints, suggestions) of individuals and legal entities that arrive on official websites and portals of government. The rubrication plays an important role in solving this problem. It consists in the appeals’ distribution according to thematic rubrics determining the directions of the activity of departments carrying out processing and preparation of the corresponding response. The results of the analysis of the specific features of such text messages (small size, markup lack, the errors’ presence, thesaurus unsteadiness, etc.) confirmed the impossibility of using traditional approaches to rubrication and justified the feasibility of using data mining methods. The article proposes a new approach to the analysis and rubrication of electronic unstructured text documents arrived on official websites and portals of public authorities. It involves the formation of a tree-like structure of the rubric field, based on fuzzy relationships of differences between the syntactic characteristics of documents. The analysis is based on determining the fuzzy correspondence of these documents by their syntactic characteristics with the values of the clusters’ centers. It is carried out sequentially from the root to the leaves of the constructed fuzzy decision tree. The proposed rubrication method is programmatically implemented and tested in the automated processing and analysis of appeals (applications, complaints and suggestions) of citizens entering the Administration of Smolensk Region. This made it possible to ensure prompt and high-quality updating of rubrics and document analysis under conditions of non-stationary composition of the thesaurus and the importance of rubric words. Read more...

NON-factors, temporal logic and fuzzy logical tools in hybrid import substitution risk management models

In the past five years, the problems of import substitution began to arise in the industrial sectors of various countries: in Russia, China, Belarus and others. The main reasons are political decisions at the state level in importing countries, which are expressed in the form of sanctions, as well as unfair competition from manufacturing companies, supported at the state level in these countries. Therefore, in consumer countries, technical and trade-economic measures are being developed to ensure their economic security. Appropriate research and development in these countries has become very relevant. The article discusses the solution to the project risk management risk in import substitution case of purchased products using modern methods of system analysis and operations research. In projects, as a rule, two main types of import substitution are considered: improved and radical. Dozens of import substitution options are being studied, which are grouped into three types: A – replacement of imports by imports from another country that does not support sanctions; B – development of our own product that completely replaces the imported one, and the release of this product at the country’s enterprises; C – development of a new system, which includes this product, if a 100-percent analogue cannot be purchased in a third country or produced domestically. Option A may be the simplest, and option C may become complex or the most difficult and expensive from viewpoint of material and time resources. The authors propose new solutions to the problem of choosing options for import substitution, based on establishing “fair” priorities for the options being implemented using hybrid models and a special information management system. Read more...

Rubrication of text information based on the voting of intellectual classifiers

The practical implementation of the concept of electronic government is one of the priorities of Russian state policy. The organization of effective interaction between authorities and citizens is an important element of this concept. In addition to providing public services, it should include the processing of electronic appeals (applications, complaints, suggestions, etc.). Research has shown that the speed and efficiency of appeal processing largely depend on the quality of determining the thematic rubric, i.e. solving the rubrication task. The analysis of citizens' appeals received by the e-mail and official websites of public authorities has revealed several specific features (small size, errors in the text, free presentation style, description of several problems) that do not allow the successful application of traditional approaches to their rubrication. To solve this problem, it has been proposed to use various methods of intellectual analysis of unstructured text data (in particular, fuzzy logical algorithms, fuzzy decision trees, fuzzy pyramidal networks, neuro-fuzzy classifi convolutional and recurrent neural networks). The article describes the conditions of the applicability of six intellectual classifiers proposed for rubricating the electronic citizens’ appeals. They are based on such factors as the size of the document, the degree of intersection of thematic rubrics, the dynamics of their thesauruses, and the amount of accumulated statistical information. For a situation where a specific model cannot make an unambiguous choice of a thematic rubric, it is proposed to use the classifier voting method, which can significantly reduce the probability of rubrication errors based on the weighted aggregation of solutions obtained by several models selected using fuzzy inference. Read more...

Tools of organizational change management using swarm intelligence methods

In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, the importance of disposable tableware and packaging for food has sharply increased. On the one hand, this contributed to an increase in demand for such products, and on the other hand, it strengthened the already intense competition in this market. As a result, manufacturers of disposable tableware faced the vital challenge of finding ways to maintain and expand their customer base. Today, a promising way to solve it is the development and implementation of various product and technological innovations. However, the implementation of such projects is a rather complex process, since it includes not only the creation or modification of production technologies and manufactured products but organizational changes related to all business processes of the enterprise. Practice shows that the human factor plays a special role in carrying out such organizational changes, while the greatest threat to the project is not mistakes in planning and implementation of changes but the resistance of employees. One of the ways to prevent or reduce it is to create a dedicated change support team that is distinguished by its initiative. However, in practice, it is rather difficult to identify such employees who not only want to participate in the implementation of changes but have sufficient knowledge, skills, experience to carry them out. To solve this problem, it was suggested employee behavior modeling, aimed at optimizing the team composition based on a study of various characteristics. The artificial bee colony algorithm modified by the introduction of fuzzy elements (to set the initial search positions) was used for its practical implementation. Read more...

Features of building hybrid simulation models in Actor Pilgrim

In recent years, simulation has been actively used to study socio-economic processes in order to test various management decisions (for analyzing risks, projects, regional processes, logistics, etc.). Today, three simulation systems (Actor Pilgrim, AnyLogic, GPSS World), each of which has its own areas of application, are the most widespread in Russia. So, the system Actor Pilgrim is most suitable for modeling socio- economic processes. The first version of this system was developed by a group led by Professor Alexander Anatolyevich Yemelyanov more than 35 years ago to solve experimental problems in the direction of "Flexible automated production". It was based on a new modeling paradigm, which was built on the actor-network theory. The transition to solving new problems, primarily in the economics, led to the need for its further system development through the implementation of temporal, financial and spatial dynamics. Currently, the system development is carried out through the construction of hybrid simulation models, which is associated with the introduction of various analysis methods. So, when modeling actual technical and economic processes (for example, import substitution of high- tech products), it is proposed to use artificial intelligence methods that allow you to get informed decisions in conditions of information uncertainty. Models that include fuzzy logic methods and swarm algorithms (in particular, bacterial optimization) have shown good results. For example, fuzzy logic methods have been used to assign "fair" priorities to option projects through a detailed analysis of the factors of the internal and external environment of enterprises that will implement them. Bacterial optimization algorithms have been used to search for "promising" areas for the implementation of the projects of import substitution of high-tech products. These swarm algorithms are distinguished by the ability to simultaneously study favorable and negative factors, i. e. allow taking into account various risk situations. The modern version of Actor Pilgrim is intended for systems analysts, economists-mathematicians and other professionals who are familiar with programming, but are not professional programmers. Read more...

Rubrication of text documents based on fuzzy difference relations

One of the key areas of informatization of public authorities is to develop and implement the systems of automated processing the electronic appeals (applications, complaints, suggestions) of individuals and legal entities that arrive on official websites and portals of government. The rubrication plays an important role in solving this problem. It consists in the appeals’ distribution according to thematic rubrics determining the directions of the activity of departments carrying out processing and preparation of the corresponding response. The results of the analysis of the specific features of such text messages (small size, markup lack, the errors’ presence, thesaurus unsteadiness, etc.) confirmed the impossibility of using traditional approaches to rubrication and justified the feasibility of using data mining methods. The article proposes a new approach to the analysis and rubrication of electronic unstructured text documents arrived on official websites and portals of public authorities. It involves the formation of a tree-like structure of the rubric field, based on fuzzy relationships of differences between the syntactic characteristics of documents. The analysis is based on determining the fuzzy correspondence of these documents by their syntactic characteristics with the values of the clusters’ centers. It is carried out sequentially from the root to the leaves of the constructed fuzzy decision tree. The proposed rubrication method is programmatically implemented and tested in the automated processing and analysis of appeals (applications, complaints and suggestions) of citizens entering the Administration of Smolensk Region. This made it possible to ensure prompt and high-quality updating of rubrics and document analysis under conditions of non-stationary composition of the thesaurus and the importance of rubric words. Read more...

Application of bacterial optimization algorithms for selecting a site to construct a tank park on the main oil pipeline

The oil industry is the leading sector of the Russian economy, that makes the largest contribution to the country’s budget, creates a huge number of jobs and fully meets the domestic needs for oil and its products. In Russia, transportation of crude oil from fields to consumers (primarily refineries) is carried out by 5 modes of transport. Pipeline transport has received the greatest distribution. It provides transportation for 83% of crude oil and 30% of oil products. The most important element of the pipeline system is tank parks, which are used to collect and store oil at the junctions of technological pipeline sections and transshipment to other modes of transport. They are especially dangerous industrial objects. Therefore, they are subject to extremely stringent design and construction requirements. The most important stage in the construction of a tank park is the site selection, which is carried out on the basis of economic criteria and engineering requirements. In order to reduce the number of options for its location, where the survey party will travel, it is proposed to conduct a preliminary selection of the most promising territories by solving the task of multi-criteria optimization. The presence of a huge number of criteria leads to the need to use heuristic methods, among which swarm optimization algorithms based on modeling the collective behavior of various living organisms are widely used. To solve this problem, it is proposed to use bacterial optimization algorithms that allow taking into account both favorable and negative factors. Fuzzy logic elements can be added to the classical algorithm (it is proposed to set the initial positions of bacteria using fuzzy-logical inference systems, where the available statistics and expert assessments will be input parameters). In general, the proposed approach can be used to select sites for the construction of various hazardous industrial facilities, for which a large number of parameters must be taken into account. Read more...

Using population algorithms to optimize the temperature regime of roasting phosphorite pellets

The problem of rational energy resource use is especially acute for energy- intensive industries, which include high-temperature processing of mining chemical raw materials (for example, the production of phosphorite pellets from apatite-nepheline ore waste by drying and roasting). In this regard, the temperature modes of roasting conveyor machine should ensure not only the completion of the ongoing chemical-technological processes and the required product quality, but also energy and resource saving. Thus, there is an urgent scientific and practical task of optimizing charge heating modes based on the results of modeling heat and mass transfer processes occurring in various zones of the roasting conveyor machine. The impossibility of carrying out expensive full-scale experiments leads to the need to use computer simulation methods. Nonlinearity, large dimension of the search space, high computational complexity make it difficult to use traditional deterministic search methods. Under these conditions, the stochastic methods that deliberately introduce an element of randomness into the search algorithm show good results. Today, population algorithms based on modeling the collective behavior of living organisms and characterized by the ability to simultaneously process several options have become widespread. To solve the optimization problem, it is proposed to use a modified Cuckoo search algorithm (by introducing fuzzy elements), which provides a comprehensive account of a huge number of parameters set for each vacuum chamber of the roasting conveyor machine. The control of the chemical-energy-technological system for the processing of apatite-nepheline ores waste, taking into account the obtained data and based on the existing neural network model of the high-temperature process, will make it possible to minimize the amount of return and provide energy-saving conditions for the operation of roasting units. Read more...

The use of coevolutionary algorithms for optimizing the operating regimes of the roasting conveyor machine

In modern conditions of constant growth in prices for fuel and energy resources, the problem of increasing the energy and resource efficiency of technological processes of industrial enterprises has acquired particular relevance. It is especially acute for energy-intensive industries, which include high-temperature processing of mining and chemical raw materials. To reduce the energy intensity of complex chemical-technological processes, it is proposed to use the possibilities of computer simulation, for example, to optimize the operating regimes of existing equipment. The article has considered the scientific and practical problem of optimizing the charge heating regimes in various zones of the roasting conveyor machine used to produce phosphorite pellets from apatite-nepheline ore waste stored in dumps of mining and processing plants. The specifics of the optimization task (nonlinearity of the objective function, large dimension of the search space, high computational complexity) are significant limitations for the use of traditional deterministic search methods. It led to the choice of population algorithms, which are based on modeling the collective behavior and are distinguished by the possibility of simultaneous processing of several options. The cuckoo search algorithm, which is distinguished by a small number of “free” parameters that affect the convergence, was used to solve the stated optimization task. To select the optimal values of these parameters, it was proposed to use the idea of coevolution, which consists in the parallel launch of several versions of the selected algorithm with different “settings” for each subpopulation. The management of the chemical-technological system for the processing of apatite-nepheline ore waste, taking into account the basis of the results obtained, will minimize the amount of return and ensure an energy-saving operating regime of the roasting conveyor machine. Read more...

Directions for modifying the artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize control parameters for complex systems

In recent years, bioinspired algorithms based on the use of a population approach and a probabilistic search strategy have become especially popular among researchers involved in multidimensional and multicriteria optimization. Such algorithms are based on the principles of cooperative behavior of a decentralized self-organizing colony of living organisms (bees, ants, birds, etc.) to achieve certain goals (for example, to meet nutritional needs). However, their practical application encounters a number of difficulties leading to a decrease in convergence. This article discusses the possibility of modifying the artificial bee colony algorithm by using a hybridization strategy with various data mining methods. One of these difficulties is the lack of a reasonable approach to determining initial search positions. As a solution, it is proposed to divide the population into clusters, the centers of which will be the initial positions. The need for interaction between individuals makes it advisable to use fuzzy clustering, which allows the formation of intersecting clusters. Another difficulty is associated with the choice of “free” parameters, for which the authors have not developed recommendations for choosing their optimal values. To solve this problem, it is proposed to use the idea of coevolution, which consists in the parallel launch of several interacting subpopulations, for each of which different “settings” are applied. The proposed algorithm is applicable to multidimensional optimization tasks, in which it is necessary to find such a combination of different types of elements belonging to some “large” population that will ensure the achievement of the maximum effect under given restrictions. Examples of such tasks are determining the species and quantitative composition of plants to form the terrestrial ecosystem of a carbon farm or mass recruiting, which consists of selecting a large number of personnel for the same positions. Read more...

Directions of hybridization of swarm intelligence and fuzzy logic algorithms for solving optimization problems in socio-economic systems

Effective functioning of complex socio-economic systems in conditions of uncertainty is impossible without solving many problems of supporting management decision-making. These include improving the quality of manufactured products, reducing production costs, ensuring energy and resource conservation, reducing transportation costs, increasing the reliability of the supply chain, forming a balanced portfolio of projects, and others. Their mathematical formulation in a typical case requires searching for a global extremum of the objective function; in the case of a multi-criteria formulation, it involves convolutions of criteria that must be met taking into account various constraints. In this case, finding an optimal solution is usually not necessary, and a result close to it is considered acceptable. Some of the most popular methods for solving problems in this simplified formulation include stochastic methods, which allow us to obtain a solution in 102–103 times less time than the execution time of algorithms based on exhaustive search. Of particular interest recently has been metaheuristic methods, which are inspired by the cooperative behavior of a decentralized self-organizing colony of living organisms (bees, ants, bacteria, cuckoos, wolves, etc.) to achieve certain goals, usually to satisfy food needs. According to the relatively recently proven “no free lunch” theorem, there is no universal algorithm capable of producing better results regardless of the problem being solved. For this reason, the focus of developers' efforts is shifting toward creating and improving specialized algorithms. This paper aims to establish approaches to constructing methods based on swarm intelligence and fuzzy logic algorithms. Based on their classification and analysis, possible directions for the “development” of swarm intelligence algorithms at various stages of their implementation (initiation of a population, migration of individuals, quality assessment and screening of unpromising solutions) are proposed by introducing elements of fuzziness to increase their efficiency in solving problems of multidimensional optimization of parameters of complex socio-economic systems. Read more...