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Authors

Bulygina Olga V.

Degree
Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, department of Information Technology in Economics and Management, the Branch of National Research University MPEI in Smolensk
E-mail
baguzova_ov@mail.ru
Location
Smolensk
Articles

Synergy and evolution of information systems in holding management

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of functional parameters, performance properties and survivability in distributed multi-level information management system is performed using computer modeling tools, including simulation. The models take into account the heterogeneity and variability of structures, network bandwidth and distributed database features. In recent years, become topical investigating the properties of evolving information systems in holding’s management. This article deals with the evolution of management information systems (MIS). Modeling of support MIS performance process is carried out with the use of the optimal composition of the resources required in the first stage. The model takes into account that the parameters of the system gradually drift far enough away from the optimum, and the phase trajectory is «attracted» to the stable, but non-optimal point in the evolution. All this testifies to the fact that the necessary features to achieve the bifurcation point are performed, and the validity of the hypothesis made earlier about the need to release a new version of MIS proved. Bringing the system to even more efficient state without interrupting the life cycle requires some special solutions, one of which is the release of the next version of the MIS. Some scientific research and consulting unit in the holdings can carry out systematic analytical study of MIS on their own, or setting targets for outside organizations — universities or research institutes.
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Analysis of the feasibility of innovative projects for creating high technology products: the algorithms and instruments

Today, development of Russian economy is inseparably connected with the application of high technologies and the practical introduction of radical innovations. In managing the project to create hightech products analysis of its implementation prospects plays an important role. It should be based on assessing the sufficiency of the internal resources and the accumulated potential of the enterprise, the favorable external conditions. The specific features of innovative activities, related to the statistics lack, have necessitated the usage of data mining techniques. In the article it's suggested the economic and mathematical apparatus for the diagnosis of various elements of internal and external enterprise environment, based on the modified algorithms of growing pyramidal networks. The modification is involved using the fuzzy logic methods to find reasonable single decision under the conditions of uncertainty. The fuzzy inference algorithms are applied to calculate the connection power between the factors and conditions and the vertex significance. The neuro-fuzzy classifier is used to get an aggregate assessment of the various indicators — the characteristics of internal and external enterprise environment. These methods are implemented as the expert-diagnostic system, which is built using the server pages of database Caché and tools of mathematical package MatLab. It is expected that the application of the described tools will enhance the validity of accepted decisions and reduce the errors in the initial stages of the project lifecycle.
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System analysis of risky project realization using special scales (for example, investment processes)

The concept of «risk» was quite developed as economic category. The theory of risk is actively developing. Partly for that reason, the term risk of different authors may have a different interpretation. In connection with the above, the notion of «risk» is often used in everyday speech. This word is used more often than the word «cat» according to the frequency dictionary of the Russian language. «The classical risk theory» of Daniel Bernoulli may be chosen as the basic concept of system analysis. But the «neoclassical theory» of Lawrence Galitz can also be applied. Risk analysis with the help of the special theory is reduced to the analysis of the stability of the automated control system. Mathematical methods of operational calculus applied. Sustainability criteria by using the theory of functions of a complex variable are used. The dynamics of the control system is investigated by means of special software — simulation model. Graphic illustration of the dynamics of stability displayed by means of «locus» — special figure is automatically created on the complex plane. This indicator means used is provided by software developed by the authors. The structure of the research simulation software provides. Numerical examples illustrate the application of a special simulation system — the software package Actor Pilgrim. Below we consider the systematic analysis of risky management processes by means of the special scales that are using in the decision-making support system DSS (for example, investment projects).
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Simulation modeling and fuzzy logic in real-time decision-making of airport services

Decision making by the aircrafts services of the international airport, which provides for intensive traffic of aircraft and their ground handling, becomes a very topical issue. If earlier it was believed that the intensity is provided only by the number of runways, nowadays a large accumulation of aircraft on the airport platform-field creates equally complex difficulties in comparison with aircraft take-offs and landings. Solving such problems with the use of «crisp methods» of queuing theory gives little. This article deals with modern «fuzzy methods» based on simulation modeling and fuzzy logic.
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Assigning priorities in technological hubs using simulation and fuzzy logic

The tasks of priorities assignment to applications, work, actions and simply objects of activity are decided long ago and in different ways. In purely technical systems, including computer and communication systems, where serving processes can be programmed explicitly, such tasks are considered to be practically solved, because: first, two counterprocesses are analyzed (the service process and the waiting process), If the serving node is busy, and secondly, the time parameters are taked into account mainly. In this case, as a rule, the waiting time for some classes of applications is minimized. However, in schemes of multi-nomenclature productions, especially high technology products, the efficiency of production or the production site depends not only on the direct losses of time, since delays can be evaluated in a different way, taking into account the funding resources, urgency resources and even the administrative resource. Therefore, clear rules and algorithms can become fuzzy, and the task of minimizing losses is complicated. This article is devoted to the joint application of simulation modeling and fuzzy logic algorithms in the tasks of priorities operational assignment for application in technological hubs. Particular attention is paid to the development of a unified program function for fuzzy priorities assignment in models created through the licensed software package Actor Pilgrim. The information links of this program function with the internal atomic data structures of simulation model are also considered. The considered models are intended for use in two-scale adaptive fuzzy control systems.
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Complex simulation using genetic algorithms

Genetic algorithms are used in various forms to solve scientific and technical problems. They are used to create computational structures. In machine learning, they are used in the design of neural networks or in the control of robots. They are also used to model development in different subject areas, including social, economic and political systems. It is possible and heuristic-mathematical application of genetic algorithms for multiparameter functions optimization. Most real problems can be formulated as the search for the optimal value, where such a value is a complex function, depending on certain input parameters. In cases where the exact optimum is not needed, a solution can be any value that is better than a given value. Then the genetic algorithm is an acceptable method for finding «acceptable » values. The strength of the genetic algorithm lies in its ability to manipulate many parameters simultaneously; this is used in different projects, including even aircraft design. However, the formal, purely mathematical application of such algorithms, without taking into account time characteristics, dynamics and other features of real processes, where they are applied, can either not give a rational effect, or lead to an erroneous decision. One of the ways of linking the appropriate models of decision support to dynamics is a complex modeling of the studied processes on the basis of simulation modeling using genetically-based algorithms.
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Bacterial optimization and complex swarm-simulation modeling of innovative projects’ promotion into the regions

The optimization task solution of promoting innovative projects into the regions with using of a complex simulation model and included modules of bacterial optimization is considered below. As the object of research, the process of forming an innovative cluster was chosen. The complex model is implemented in the modeling system «Actor Pilgrim» with the implementation of the common virtual time, spatial and financial dynamics (money, financial instruments). The simulation results are tied to topographic information of different scales.
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Formation of the structure of the intellectual system of analyzing and rubricating unstructured text information in different situations

The analysis of electronic text documents written in natural language is one of the most important tasks implementing in systems of automated analyzing linguistic information. Today the most complicated problem is analyzing unstructured text documents coming to various organizations and authorities through the electronic communications. The increasing volume of such documents leads to the need to rubricate incoming messages, i.e. to solve the classification task. The analysis of the scientific works in this field has showed the impossibility of constructing a unified model for rubricating unstructured electronic text documents in various situations. The main reasons are the lack of statistical data, the dynamism of the thesaurus and the small size of the incoming document. To solve this problem, we propose a multimodel approach to the rubrication that is characterized by the combined use of intellectual and probabilistic-statistical methods of the text document analysis. The choice of a specific model is carried out using fuzzy logic algorithms based on the proposed characteristics (the size of document, the degree of rubric thesaurus intersection, the frequency of meaningful keywords, etc.). The implementation of the proposed multimodel approach will improve the accuracy of attributing unstructured electronic text documents to concrete rubrics taking into account their specificity and various objectives of practical application in the organization.
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Developing the economic information system for automated analysis of unstructured text documents

The study of tasks and methods of automated text rubrication was conducted and their prospects for the analysis of unstructured electronic text documents were evaluated taking into account the peculiarities of appeals received from citizens to the authorities. The architecture of the information system of automated analysis of such documents is developed. It implements the proposed multi-model approach to the rubrication based on the integrated use of intelligent and probabilistic-statistical methods. The procedure of processing citizens’appeals received by the authorities using the document management system and the developed information system is given.
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Hybrid cyber-modeling in economics: actor-network theory, simulation, NON-factors and super fuzzy logic

Computer simulation is usually the launch of parallel interacting computational processes, similar to real processes, but in virtual spaces and time. Such a model makes it possible to obtain the metrological characteristics of a real process, a field study of which is either very expensive or impossible because of the receiving irreplaceable damage risk. However, to create a model, sometimes there is no complete set of source data to ensure a satisfactory significance level, and it is necessary to create a model under conditions of uncertainty. In this case, along with programs that receive metrological characteristics as source data, there is a need to include programs that implement artificial intelligence methods to obtain new qualimetric characteristics in the model. In this direction is the development of modern software for hybrid simulation modeling and related modern methods. According to the publications and author’s experience, the most studied area of hybrid simulation modeling is the use of bioinspired algorithms. The using of fuzzy controllers allows you to implement some adaptive methods necessary for simulation models when searching for acceptable solutions and modes of the simulated processes operation, for the sake of which these models are created to control. The most difficult area of hybrid simulation is the use of super-fuzzy logic when conducting interval evaluations of membership functions in the same simulation models that use fuzzy controllers. This direction requires additional experimental research, literally «at the scientific interface» of metrology and qualimetry, using special modeling techniques.
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Instrumental decision support in multiprojects management for metal production issue (part 1)

The article discusses some new results obtained in the problem solving process of developing new tools for assessing the viability of large innovative multiprojects in the metallurgical industry for the new metal products issue. Accordingly, methods have been created for predicting the performance indicators of enterprises participat-ing in such multiprojects. The results obtained are important to development of economic-mathematical and instrumental methods for analyzing the effectiveness of in-novation in the dynamic environment. A model has been created for the implementation of a large innovative multiproject as part of the new metal production creation with the ability to carry out this project stages by several participants. An assessment was made of the various components of the metallurgical enterprises innovation potential and their external environment using dynamic growing pyramidal networks and Kalman filtering. A computer actor-simulation model for implementation of the organizational stage of production in the metallurgical complex has been developed. An organizational- computational procedure and an information system for decision-making support to managing a large innovative multiproject in the metallurgy and approving technical tasks for its subprojects. An organizational-computational procedure and an information system for decision-making support to managing a large innovative multiproject in the metallurgy and approving technical tasks for its subprojects. The created economic and mathematical tools were used to develop recommendations for the implementation of an innovative project carried out at the stage of semi-finished production for future metal-made products.
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Instrumental decision support in multiprojects management for metal production issue

The article discusses some new results obtained in the problem solving process of developing new tools for assessing the viability of large innovative multiprojects in the metallurgical industry for the new metal products issue. Accordingly, methods have been created for predicting the performance indicators of enterprises participat-ing in such multiprojects. The results obtained are important to development of economic-mathematical and instrumental methods for analyzing the effectiveness of in-novation in the dynamic environment. A model has been created for the implementation of a large innovative multiproject as part of the new metal production creation with the ability to carry out this project stages by several participants. An assessment was made of the various components of the metallurgical enterprises innovation potential and their external environment using dynamic growing pyramidal networks and Kalman filtering. A computer actor-simulation model for implementation of the organizational stage of production in the metallurgical complex has been developed. An organizational- computational procedure and an information system for decision-making support to managing a large innovative multiproject in the metallurgy and approving technical tasks for its subprojects. An organizational-computational procedure and an information system for decision-making support to managing a large innovative multiproject in the metallurgy and approving technical tasks for its subprojects. The created economic and mathematical tools were used to develop recommendations for the implementation of an innovative project carried out at the stage of semi-finished production for future metal-made products.
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Using fuzzy decision trees to rubricate unstructured small-sized text documents

Every day, a large number of appeals (statements, proposals or complaints) submitted in unstructured text form are received on Internet portals and e-mails of public authorities. The quality and speed of automatic processing of such electronic messages directly depend on the correctness of their classification (rubrication). It consists in assigning the received message to one or several thematic rubrics that determine the directions of the departments. The choice of a mathematical approach to analysis and rubrication directly depends on the characteristics of incoming appeals. The analysis of their specifics (small size, the presence of errors, a free-style of the problem statement, etc.) has revealed the impossibility of using classical approaches to the classification of text documents. The article suggests using the apparatus of fuzzy decision tree for rubricating small-sized unstructured text documents arriving at Internet portals and e-mails of public authorities. It allows classification under conditions of the rubric intersection and a lack of statistical information for applying probabilistic and neural network methods. The proposed model for the document rubrication is distinguished by the consideration of syntactic relationships and roles of words in the sentences based on the use of binary fuzzy decision tree. The tree is constructed on the basis of the results of analysis of the degree of rubric thesaurus intersection and the distances between rubrics in the n-dimensional feature space.
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Analysis of short unstructured documents using fuzzy significance scales and special procedures for economic information integration

The article proposes a new approach to the automatic analysis of short messages arriving at Internet portals and e-mails of public authorities. The developed model allows to classify short unstructured text documents in a lack of statistical information and a low degree of thematic rubric intersection. The input data for the algorithm for constructing the model is the set of rubrics and the training sample. Its result is fuzzy scales of significant words in thesaurus of the rubrics, which ensures the correct presentation of the document characteristics and the operation of the classification (rubrication) algorithm.
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Investments, innovations, import substitution: simulation with elements of artificial intelligence in project risk management

The article discusses the risk management of investment, innovative and import substitution projects. Since the implementation of such projects requires investors and investments, innovative projects can sometimes be considered as a kind of investment projects, and import substitution projects as a kind of innovative ones. However, these projects have significant differences from each other in viewpoint of emerging risks. Moreover, a systemic effect may arise of a sharp increase in the complexity in the total project risk during the implementation of complex system projects. Therefore, the use of simulation with elements of artificial intelligence, including fuzzy logic and artificial life algorithms, is becoming relevant in the management of project risks. As a result, a new method is proposed for identifying the need to create hybrid fuzzy-logical simulation models or the absence of such a need based on identifying synergistic effects when analyzing the risk rubricator in a specific project. The analysis of the investment attractiveness of the Russia’s regions using the evolutionary-simulative methodology on the example of the Smolensk and Tambov regions. A new method is proposed for selecting innovation clusters and promoting innovative projects in the regions on the basis of integrated bacteria swarm-simulation modeling with detection of contours selected territories borders. A new economic and mathematical toolkit for managing the risk of import substitution has been created. Read more...

Rubrication of text documents based on fuzzy difference relations

One of the key areas of informatization of public authorities is to develop and implement the systems of automated processing the electronic appeals (applications, complaints, suggestions) of individuals and legal entities that arrive on official websites and portals of government. The rubrication plays an important role in solving this problem. It consists in the appeals’ distribution according to thematic rubrics determining the directions of the activity of departments carrying out processing and preparation of the corresponding response. The results of the analysis of the specific features of such text messages (small size, markup lack, the errors’ presence, thesaurus unsteadiness, etc.) confirmed the impossibility of using traditional approaches to rubrication and justified the feasibility of using data mining methods. The article proposes a new approach to the analysis and rubrication of electronic unstructured text documents arrived on official websites and portals of public authorities. It involves the formation of a tree-like structure of the rubric field, based on fuzzy relationships of differences between the syntactic characteristics of documents. The analysis is based on determining the fuzzy correspondence of these documents by their syntactic characteristics with the values of the clusters’ centers. It is carried out sequentially from the root to the leaves of the constructed fuzzy decision tree. The proposed rubrication method is programmatically implemented and tested in the automated processing and analysis of appeals (applications, complaints and suggestions) of citizens entering the Administration of Smolensk Region. This made it possible to ensure prompt and high-quality updating of rubrics and document analysis under conditions of non-stationary composition of the thesaurus and the importance of rubric words. Read more...

NON-factors, temporal logic and fuzzy logical tools in hybrid import substitution risk management models

In the past five years, the problems of import substitution began to arise in the industrial sectors of various countries: in Russia, China, Belarus and others. The main reasons are political decisions at the state level in importing countries, which are expressed in the form of sanctions, as well as unfair competition from manufacturing companies, supported at the state level in these countries. Therefore, in consumer countries, technical and trade-economic measures are being developed to ensure their economic security. Appropriate research and development in these countries has become very relevant. The article discusses the solution to the project risk management risk in import substitution case of purchased products using modern methods of system analysis and operations research. In projects, as a rule, two main types of import substitution are considered: improved and radical. Dozens of import substitution options are being studied, which are grouped into three types: A – replacement of imports by imports from another country that does not support sanctions; B – development of our own product that completely replaces the imported one, and the release of this product at the country’s enterprises; C – development of a new system, which includes this product, if a 100-percent analogue cannot be purchased in a third country or produced domestically. Option A may be the simplest, and option C may become complex or the most difficult and expensive from viewpoint of material and time resources. The authors propose new solutions to the problem of choosing options for import substitution, based on establishing “fair” priorities for the options being implemented using hybrid models and a special information management system. Read more...

Rubrication of text information based on the voting of intellectual classifiers

The practical implementation of the concept of electronic government is one of the priorities of Russian state policy. The organization of effective interaction between authorities and citizens is an important element of this concept. In addition to providing public services, it should include the processing of electronic appeals (applications, complaints, suggestions, etc.). Research has shown that the speed and efficiency of appeal processing largely depend on the quality of determining the thematic rubric, i.e. solving the rubrication task. The analysis of citizens' appeals received by the e-mail and official websites of public authorities has revealed several specific features (small size, errors in the text, free presentation style, description of several problems) that do not allow the successful application of traditional approaches to their rubrication. To solve this problem, it has been proposed to use various methods of intellectual analysis of unstructured text data (in particular, fuzzy logical algorithms, fuzzy decision trees, fuzzy pyramidal networks, neuro-fuzzy classifi convolutional and recurrent neural networks). The article describes the conditions of the applicability of six intellectual classifiers proposed for rubricating the electronic citizens’ appeals. They are based on such factors as the size of the document, the degree of intersection of thematic rubrics, the dynamics of their thesauruses, and the amount of accumulated statistical information. For a situation where a specific model cannot make an unambiguous choice of a thematic rubric, it is proposed to use the classifier voting method, which can significantly reduce the probability of rubrication errors based on the weighted aggregation of solutions obtained by several models selected using fuzzy inference. Read more...

Tools of organizational change management using swarm intelligence methods

In the context of the coronavirus pandemic, the importance of disposable tableware and packaging for food has sharply increased. On the one hand, this contributed to an increase in demand for such products, and on the other hand, it strengthened the already intense competition in this market. As a result, manufacturers of disposable tableware faced the vital challenge of finding ways to maintain and expand their customer base. Today, a promising way to solve it is the development and implementation of various product and technological innovations. However, the implementation of such projects is a rather complex process, since it includes not only the creation or modification of production technologies and manufactured products but organizational changes related to all business processes of the enterprise. Practice shows that the human factor plays a special role in carrying out such organizational changes, while the greatest threat to the project is not mistakes in planning and implementation of changes but the resistance of employees. One of the ways to prevent or reduce it is to create a dedicated change support team that is distinguished by its initiative. However, in practice, it is rather difficult to identify such employees who not only want to participate in the implementation of changes but have sufficient knowledge, skills, experience to carry them out. To solve this problem, it was suggested employee behavior modeling, aimed at optimizing the team composition based on a study of various characteristics. The artificial bee colony algorithm modified by the introduction of fuzzy elements (to set the initial search positions) was used for its practical implementation. Read more...