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NON-factors, temporal logic and fuzzy logical tools in hybrid import substitution risk management models

In the past five years, the problems of import substitution began to arise in the industrial sectors of various countries: in Russia, China, Belarus and others. The main reasons are political decisions at the state level in importing countries, which are expressed in the form of sanctions, as well as unfair competition from manufacturing companies, supported at the state level in these countries. Therefore, in consumer countries, technical and trade-economic measures are being developed to ensure their economic security. Appropriate research and development in these countries has become very relevant. The article discusses the solution to the project risk management risk in import substitution case of purchased products using modern methods of system analysis and operations research. In projects, as a rule, two main types of import substitution are considered: improved and radical. Dozens of import substitution options are being studied, which are grouped into three types: A – replacement of imports by imports from another country that does not support sanctions; B – development of our own product that completely replaces the imported one, and the release of this product at the country’s enterprises; C – development of a new system, which includes this product, if a 100-percent analogue cannot be purchased in a third country or produced domestically. Option A may be the simplest, and option C may become complex or the most difficult and expensive from viewpoint of material and time resources. The authors propose new solutions to the problem of choosing options for import substitution, based on establishing “fair” priorities for the options being implemented using hybrid models and a special information management system. Read more...