Authors
Kondratov D.
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Degree
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Dr of Physics & Mathematics, Professor, Head of the department of applied informatics and information technology in management, Volga Institute of Management, a branch of the Russian academy of national economy and public administration under the President of the Russian Federation |
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E-mail
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kondratovdv@yandex.ru |
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Location
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Saratov |
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Articles
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Mathematical models, algorithms and complexes of programs for the analysis and forecasting of national security indicatorsThe description of the mathematical model for the analysis of the state and forecasting the national
security of the state is presented. The model is developed based on the system dynamics model. As
model variables, the model uses national security indicators of various countries of the world (BRICS,
UN). The model also uses external factors selected on the basis of correlation analysis and analysis
of interrelated time series that affect the modeled variables. To illustrate the cause-effect relationships
between the model variables, a digraph is constructed. The procedure for the formation of a mathematical
forecast model for a specific country using structural coefficients is shown. The adequacy of
the developed model was verified using retrospective data. The results of a computational experiment
with the developed model for the Russian Federation are presented: the process of setting up the model
is analyzed, the working areas of the model are highlighted, and the national security indicators of the
Russian Federation are forecasted until 2020. For the accumulation, processing, analysis of statistical
information necessary for the development of a forecast model and directly for forecasting the national
security indicators of the state, a computer simulation system was developed. The basis of the
computer simulation system is the «Program for modeling and forecasting the main indicators of national
security of the Russian Federation», developed in GUIDE MatLab. The methodology of using
the developed mathematical and software for the training of specialists in the field of national security
on the basis of the educational resources of the RANEPA is presented. The situational training center,
functioning on the basis of the Institute of Law and National Security of the RANEPA and the expertanalytical
center of the RANEPA, is designed to conduct an express analysis of the socio-economic,
political, demographic situation in the region / country; development of scenarios of socio-economic
and political development of the country; modeling of critical situations arising in the real economic,
social, political systems of the country.
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