Authors
Tikhanychev O.
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Degree
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Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Deputy Head of Department in the Office of Advanced Development, Group of companies "Technoserv", Moscow, Russia, tow@yandex.ru |
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E-mail
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tow65@yandex.ru |
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Location
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Moscow, Russia |
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Articles
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Algorithms for automated decision supportThe article analyzes the current status of the description of the subject area of decision support systems
in terms of decision support algorithms. It was concluded that the current situation is determined
by the absence of well-established views on the standard algorithms of decision-making support, it
slows down the process of creating and putting into practice management decision support systems.
In order to regulate the domain held formalized description of management decision-making process
and introduced the concept of «small» and «extended» decision-making cycles. By «small» cycle suggested
understand search for the optimal solution in a given target function and constraints. By «extended
» refers to the cycle Search nontrivial solution, which can not be obtained without modifying
the objective function or the removal of the restrictions. On the basis of the approach proposed to abolish
the definition of an automated decision-making system and to clarify the classification of such systems.
The proposed algorithmic approach fully corresponds to the current understanding of an automated
decision support system in the modern sense, and will accelerate the process of implementing
such systems in management practices.
Read more...
On the introduction of proactive management in decision support systems
One of the conditions for the effective management of complex systems — monitoring and forecasting
of changes in their status. Simple monitoring does not always provide adequate control, especially
for dynamic systems: in most cases, it is necessary not just to monitor the system state, but
also to obtain information about possible changes in advance, that is to use the state of the forecast.
Forecasting can be divided into «active», evaluating the possible consequences of the decisions made,
and «passive», providing a forecast change of state in the prevailing conditions. It is proposed to use
the prediction of the behavior of the control system under the so-called «active monitoring» by replacing
this notion of what is now referred to as «passive forecasting». The proposed approach allows to
generate control actions in advance, taking into account the forecast of the situation development. To
ensure the possibility of implementing the proposed approach, the article analyzes the requirements for
modeling tools in the active monitoring loop and the conformity of existing prediction technologies.
Keywords: decision-making support system, mathematical simulation, management of large systems,
forecasting situation, active monitoring, proactive management.
Read more...
Coordination methods in decision-making support systems
One of the most important tasks of the mathematical support of any decision support system is the
consolidation of the solutions being developed. At present, there are mathematical methods for consolidating
joint solutions and methods for coordinating decision making. To coordinate the solution
of tasks and the modeling necessary for the application of decision support systems, methods are used
to harmonize the opinions of experts, and to coordinate the application of models and tasks. The latter
is usually divided into methods of programmable and informal coordination. Practice has shown that
existing approaches to coordination of decisions, both subjective and formal, do not provide automation
of decision support. The article proposes to use hybrid approaches to provide a coordinated solution
of problems and modeling. At the same time, it is determined that in the future, with the improvement
of automation tools, informal decision-making methods can be used in decision support systems
as the most promising. First of all, for decision support systems oriented to work with poorly formalized
tasks. The formulation of the task of developing a dispatch model for decision support systems
based on a neural network is formulated.
Read more...
A possible approach to evaluating the effectiveness of automated decision supportOne of the main problems of using automation tools — assessment of the expected effectiveness
of their implementation. In full, this issue applies to support automation of decision-making. Currently,
there is a fairly wide range of tools to assess the effectiveness of the control system operation, but none
of these tools do not provide a comprehensive integrated assessment on the criterion of «cost — effectiveness
». This is a significant problem, which hinders the development of automated decision support
systems and their implementation in practice of management. The paper proposes, based on the methods
of similarity theory, used to evaluate the effectiveness of management automation device control
theory. An example of a practical calculation of management efficiency. Analysis of testing results
show the practical applicability of the proposed method of calculation and the ability to use it to evaluate
ways to improve the effectiveness of management automation. The proposed method is not just
a theory, its practical application is to provide an operative evaluation of options for the development
of management automation. Implementing the proposed approach in the long term, serve as an impetus
for the practical implementation of decision support systems.
Read more...
Virtual reality and decision supportManagement of distributed systems that cannot be covered visually is usually done through the
formation of a virtual model of such a system. A model that provides both the development of control
actions and the management of their implementation. The analysis shows that in the pre-informational
epoch such models were formed in a mental form, based on the logical and analytical reasoning
of managers, according to the data of the gathering environment. Subsequently, the automation tools
provided for the collection of information, its processing and presentation, simplifying the formation
of a system model, but ensured this task to the end, without bringing it to a logical conclusion. The
solution of the problem has come closer with the advent of “virtual reality” technologies, which allow
us to form models of the required detail and efficiency in an almost automatic mode. Taking into
account the needs of the management process and the possibilities of virtualization technologies, the
article formulates proposals for describing and using the managed system model in decision support
systems. Two main areas of application of virtualization are proposed and algorithmically described:
when planning actions and managing the implementation of plans, as well as when training personnel.
Read more...
On the problem of information support of decision-making automationFor computer programs need a formalized information. As is known, automated control systems work only with formal information. The basis for the formalization of a system of information classification and coding. The use of formalized data allows users to work with software from the automated control systems. By increasing the size of the control systems and the number of used software, there is a problem of organization of information exchange. Normative documents recommend organizing information interaction through communication protocols. However, with the growing size of the control systems there is the problem of maintaining these protocols to date. Within the framework of the currently used "hard" coding system to solve the problem of updating the information exchange is not possible. The aim of the study is to find ways to solve the problem of interoperability based on other principles other than organizational ones. To solve this problem, the article formulates the formulation of the problem of ensuring interoperability in distributed multi-agent environments based on the methods of "fuzzy" classification and coding. To solve this problem, it is proposed to use in the automated decision support systems fundamentally new information and linguistic support on the basis of the methodology of "fuzzy classification". Practice shows the possibility of using algorithmic formalization methods in a cluster of systems that are not too critical to the input information. In the future, with the development of technology, the scope of the proposed approach can be expanded. In the future, this will make it possible to move from the organization of a potentially effective, but difficult to implement in practice, “Single Information Space” to a “unified information field”. Read more... Formulation of the task of ensuring automation of the full cycle of decision supportThe relevance of the topic of the article is determined by the fact that the existing decision support systems (DMSS) provide automation of only part of the stages of a typical management cycle, completely imposing on the user such important ones as goal setting and management of the implementation of developed plans. This is determined by the objective difficulties of formalization and the dynamism of these stages, but breaks the single management process into autonomous, partially automated sections. No research is currently being conducted to solve this problem. Taking this into account, the purpose of the study was to obtain a descriptive formulation of the task of automating the processes of goal-setting and management for implementation in the DMSS. The article, using general scientific research methods, analyzes the content of the control cycle and the existing technologies for automating its elements. Using the results of the analysis, proposals were synthesized and the task was formulated to automate the stages of goal-setting and management of the implementation of plans, for implementation as part of the DMSS, approaches were proposed that can be used to implement the task.The problem of automating the initial stage of the management cycle, goal-setting, is proposed to be solved by using specialized expert systems. To solve the problem of decision support at the control stage, it is proposed to use simplified dynamic control algorithms. In a direct formulation, such a problem is posed for the first time. The article proposes a set of methods and basic algorithms that provide a solution to the problem of automating goal-setting and management processes and, in the future, their implementation in the structure of the DMSS. Read more... |
