Authors
Bogomolov Alexey S.
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Degree
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Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Leading Researcher, Head of Laboratory of System Analysis and Control, Saratov Federal Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences |
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E-mail
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alexbogomolov@yandex.ru |
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Location
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Saratov, Russia |
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Articles
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Model to assess the state of Russia’s national security, based on system dynamics theory
Actual today is the development of mathematical models for simulation experiments to ensure the
country’s transition to sustainable development. The main indicators of national security, according to
Presidential Decree № 683 «National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation» are: satisfaction of citizen
of degree of protection of their constitutional rights and freedoms, personal and property interests,
including from criminal encroachments; the share of modern weapons, military and special equipment
in the Russian Armed Forces; the life expectancy; gross domestic product per capita; inflation; the share
of expenditure in the gross domestic product for culture, as well as the development of science, technology
and education; the part of the territory of the Russian Federation, that do not meet environmental
standards. Developed a complex of mathematical models for modeling and the prognostication indicators
of Russia’s national security. Mathematical model developed based on system dynamics models,
allows formalizing the complex casual relationships between system variables. System dynamics model
consists of the following elements: the system levels (the simulated variables), which represent the accumulation
of (accumulation) in feedback circuits; streams conveying the content of one level to another;
making procedures that govern the rate of flow between the levels; information channels connecting procedures
decisions levels. To describe the model developed using the apparatus of ordinary differential
equations. As systemic levels presented the indicators of national security. To illustrate the casual relationships
between system-level mathematical model developed using the graph model. Regression models
are used to verify the adequacy of system dynamics models. An algorithm is proposed for determining
of indicators of national security for solves the system of nonlinear differential equations. Shows the
practical implementation of the mathematical support developed and compared predictive values of indicators
of national security. Performed modeling of chaotic phenomena in the Russian economy in 1994.
Read more...
The task of reducing the probability of developing combinations of emergency events in unmanned aerial vehiclesThe article presents an approach to reducing the likelihood of accidents caused by combinations of individually relatively harmless events of various origins during the operation of civil unmanned aircraft systems. The relevance of the stated problem is considered, as well as an overview of the available official documents regulating the field of application of unmanned aircraft systems. These systems are considered from the point of view of the control object, the main groups of technical violations leading to undesirable behavior are listed. In this work, we propose a new variation of the formulation of the control problem of preventing emergency combinations of events, and formulate a general approach to solving this problem at various control time intervals. Considering that accidents are caused by certain, individually non-dangerous basic events that occurred in a certain sequence, it is necessary to establish links between them and identify possible combinations. A logical-probabilistic safety analysis is used to depict the relationship between accidents and events. It is proposed to model the processes of development of emergency combinations of events using failure trees that take into account the events of the system and the external environment. The minimum tree sections represent emergency combinations of events, and the ways of successful functioning provide options for preventing the accidents under consideration. The selected depth of event decomposition in the construction of a set of basic events is assumed to be large enough so that a specific set of fairly simple and concise actions can be proposed to fend off individual events and reduce the probability of an accident to acceptable values. A generalized algorithm of actions is proposed to prevent the development of emergency combinations of events. An example of the application of the results of work in the periods of preparation for flights is considered. Read more... |
