articles

At studying within the limits of various disciplines of imitating modelling, and also in practice of creation of models inevitably there is a question on a choice of the environment of working out, adequacy of systems of modelling. In article on in details developed and realized means GPSS World and AnyLogic models of objects with diverse processes proceeding in them show adequacy GPSS World and AnyLogic concerning results of modelling. As application GPSS World (and previous versions) unlike AnyLogic has old distribution, in article on examples modelling techniques in AnyLogic are in detail stated.

It was demonstrated that at the choice of the best of the built variants of regression model the orientation is only to the value of coefficient of determination and Fcriterion can’t warrant obtaining of minimal error of forecast of response function. For comparative assessment of quality of obtained variants of regression equation was demonstrated the opportunity of usage of developed program systems which allow at minimum labour costs to build imitation models, to carry out imitation modeling, to estimate statistic characteristics of response function (expectation value, dispersion, coefficient of variation of excess, unbalance and character of distribution) at various values of errors of covariates and different structure of regression model. Knowing the character of allocation of response function, we can estimate the probability of that the response function will be found within the prescribed limits. As an example related to the solution of real applied problem it is demonstrated that depending on the structure of regression equation and accuracy of measurement or fixation of covariates the value of response function error can vary over a wide range.

The efficient information-gathering system is a crucial point for control procedures implementation. Developing the monitoring environment assumes that the performance parameters of the system to be built must be evaluated beforehand. The application-oriented models suit suggested in the paper may support this task.

Article is devoted questions of adaptive management of the financially-managing subject concerning processes of transport type. In article the transport model which parameters by means of the developed algorithms are adjusted by positive experience of decisionmaking is considered. With the help of computer simulation experiment investigates the properties of such models as the approximation of the experience of the DM, and properties of the solutions obtained by this model in new situations.

In article two models are considered: Statistical model; The model constructed on a neural network of reverse propagation. In article the description of models, the comparative characteristic of models are resulted at the decision of the task of forecasting of sales in the insurance company. The software solution created on the basis of given models is described.

The article presents the results of the study concretized technology (vertically) integrated production. In contrast to the generalized model for assessing cost-effectiveness of technologically integrated production system, developed by the author to specify the models introduced a coefficient of technological change, specified additional costs, using the value of unit costs and selling prices the finished marketable products.